Saturday, November 25, 2017

Week 13 College Football

Apologies for the late update. Short work week + thanksgiving + family etc.

I won't be able to update the sidebar content this week, but here's the schedule / watchability.

Wednesday, November 15, 2017

College Football Week 12

May not have the splash of last week, but every week with college football to watch is a good week.

Dashboards are updated.

Monday, November 6, 2017

College Football Week 11

Well that certainly shook things up a bit! Losses by Penn State, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, and Virginia Tech knocked those teams effectively out of the CFP.

Dashboards have been updated.

  • Georgia @ Aubutn
    • The model has this game as 50/50! (FWIW, oddsmakers rate UGA as just a 2.5 point favorite, so the model and oddsmakers are fairly close on this one)
    • Interesting that Georgia is 85% to make the CFP if they win here. While a win gives them the inside track to the SEC title game, I only have them as 31% to beat Bama on a neutral field. That means the CFP model is giving serious credit to the possibility that Georgia wins out, loses to Bama in the SEC Title Game, and STILL makes the CFP. That really doesn't feel that wrong to me.
  • ND @ Miami (Fl)
    • Nearly a CFP Elimination game for both teams. Note that Miami is undefeated, and ND has a loss, but their CFP chances are similar. I like that. Miami's schedule has been fairly weak and they've tried to lose most of their games. Notre Dame has been rolling, except for a 1 point loss to Georgia. Their resumes feel similar to me.
  • TCU @ OU
    • Effectively an elimination game. This makes sense, both teams have 1 loss and a second hurts their resume and their chances of making the big-12 title game
  • OkState @ Iowa State
    • Just marvel at Iowa State making top 10 watchability week after week.
  • Washington @ Stanford
    • Since this game is on a Friday, maybe someone will actually watch Washington play.
  • Iowa @ Wisconsin
    • Here's to Iowa just rolling through and causing CHAOS. 
  • WVU @ K State
  • NC State @ BC
  • Michigan State @ Ohio State
    • What is there to say about these games?

Friday, November 3, 2017

College Football Week 10

I apologize for the delay this week, I've been travelling for work. Luckily I have many hours at the airport while my flight is delayed (thanks Seattle snow!) to get everything updated.

  • OU vs. OK State
    • What a good looking game. With one loss each team is playing to keep their CFP (and likely big 12 title hopes) alive. The model thinks highly of both teams and has them super evenly matched. 
    • Ha, I checked to see if this was the highest rated game of the year (it's 3rd) and saw that Bama-FSU was rated 95 watchability back when we all expected FSU to be good
  • VTech @ Miami
    • On one hand I do understand why the committee ranked miami so low despite their undefeated record. Miami has really put up a good effort to lose every game. On the other hand, I'm not sure if there are actual scenarios where undefeated Miami (Fl) gets left out of the CFP.
  • Texas - TCU
    • TCU's CFP hopes hanging by a thread after last week's humiliating loss to juggernaut Iowa State
  • Iowa State - WVU
    • This might be a spot where the committee gets unpredictable. Imagine there's some chaos and a few losses and Iowa State wins out and wins the big-12 title game. Obviously with 2 meh losses the model doesn't like their chance, but I dunno...
  • Clemson - NC State
    • I still can't get past 4. Clemson. C'mon committee
  • Auburn/TAM, KState/Ttech,, Stanford/WSU
    • Just fun looking games despite the total lack of CFP implications
  • Penn State - Michigan State & Wisconsin Indiana
    • I feel like like we're getting one B1G team in the CFP, and that will be the B1G winner. Wisconsin basically has the inside track, Penn State needs help. My model feels differently about Penn State though. With a loss to Ohio State they need big help to get into the B1G title game, but their loss was such a quality loss (1 point, on the road, against an elite team), the CFP model thinks they should hardly be punsiehd at all. If Penn State wins out I see their CFP prospects as likely being the subject of heated debate.
    • Editorial comment: Joe knew.

Monday, October 23, 2017

College Football Week 9

Lots of great games this week. Dashboards updated, schedule below.

  • Penn State @ Ohio State  
    • Huge CFP implications. A win by Penn State would put them in excellent shape. After this week their only semi-tough game is a road trip to Michigan State, so a win by Penn State tomorrow puts them in the driver's seat in the B1G and the CFP. On the other hand, Ohio State would jump right back into contention with a win. 
  • OkState @ WVU 
    • OkState needs a win to stay in serious CFP contention
  • NC State @ Notre Dame
    • Both NC State (what??) and Notre Dame need a win to have a shot at the CFP. Just pause and imagine the world where NC State beats Notre Dame then Clemson
  • TCU @ Iowa State
    • As one of the undefeateds, TCU has wiggle room should they lose. But with games the following weeks against Texas and OU, TCU really wants to keep their wiggle room
    • Iowa State won't be playing in the CFP, but good on them for having a good year!
  • Georgia Tech @ Clemson
    • Clemson is also in win or say bye to the CFP mode
  • Florida @ Georgia
    • Georgia's modeled chance to make the CFP exceeds their modeled chance to win the SEC. So there's some chance we get two SEC teams. That makes sense, but it's interesting nonetheles that Georgia is more likely to make the CFP than win their conference. Thanks Bama

Thursday, October 19, 2017

College Football Week 8

Well that snarky comment about WSU certainly came back to bite me didn't it. And both Washington teams losing bit the Pac-12's CFP chances. As of this week the model has the Pac-12 with only a 15% chance to get a team into the College Football Playoff.

Sidebars as well as dashboards are updated.

Saturday, October 14, 2017

College Football Week 7

Whoa. I'm not sure tomorrow will give us a single game to match Syracuse > Clemson AND Cal >>>>>>> WSU. (Side note - remember when UW beat Cal 38-7?)