Sunday, July 15, 2018

World Cup Final! France vs. Croatia

Hello dear readers, I have been remiss in updating the last few games. The long story short is that my kids started getting up with me and really enjoying the games with me, and I preferred that to doing in game updates. But I'm back for the final. Also during the final I'll do some backfilling of the games I missed :)


Thursday, June 28, 2018

World Cup: England vs. Belgium & Tunisia vs. Panama

These games are almost meaningless. Panama and Tunisia are out; England and Belgium are in.

But, the LOSER of England vs. Belgium has a slightly better chance of winning the World Cup.


  • If they lose: 6% to win the world cup
  • If they win: 9%
  • If they lose: 11%
  • If they win: 9%
So I'll track that game on its own as we wind down pool play with a whimper.

World Cup: Japan vs. Poland & Senegal vs. Colombia

The last sweat of the group stage. Poland are out but any of Japan, Senegal, and Colombia can advance with a win. Japan and Senegal will both advance with draws. Other scenarios get more complicated could include all the FIFA tiebreaking scenarios, down to fair play rules and the drawing of lots.

Wednesday, June 27, 2018

World Cup: Brazil vs. Serbia & Switzerland vs. Costa Rica

Has everyone taken a few deep breaths after the crazy Group F games? Good. It's time for two more in a group that has been very balanced if you don't count Costa Rica.

Each of Brazil, Switzerland, and Serbia can advance with a win. Brazil can also advance with a draw (vs. Serbia). Any other scenario and we start to get into messy tiebreakers, but once again no worries; I've got them all coded up.

As a refresher, here are the tiebreaking procedures:

  1. Goal differential in the group
  2. Goals for (aka goals scored) in the group
  3. Points in matches between the tied teams
  4. Goal differential in matches between the tied teams
  5. Goals for in matches between the tied teams
  6. Fewest disciplinary points (i.e. who's had fewer red/yellow cards)
  7. Coin flip

World Cup: Mexico vs. Sweden & Germany vs. Korea

This is the group. All 4 teams can still qualify, no one has it locked up. Everyone enters today with hope.

If Mexico can win or draw they're in. Whoever achieves the better result between Germany & Sweden is in as well. If both Germany and Sweden lose though, they will be in a 3 way tie with South Korea. And if both Germany and Sweden win, they will be in a 3 way tie with Mexico.

Not to worry though, I've coded out every scenario, and they are all reflected in the odds to advance.

Yay for the world cup.

Tuesday, June 26, 2018

World Cup: Argentina vs. Nigeria & Croatia vs. Iceland

Now the fun begins. Sure, there was a little drama in groups A-C, especially at the end of the group B games, but this group is pretty wide open.

  • Croatia are in, the other 3 teams are fighting for the last spot
  • Nigeria are in if they win
  • Argentina and Iceland both need to win and hope that either a) the other team doesn't also win or b) they come out ahead on goal differential
Both games are highly meaningful, both games should be intense.

World cup!!!

Note: Pregame odds to advance on the chart may differ from those shown on the left hand side. This is because the left hand side is a simulation so may randomly fluctuate a tenth of a percent here or there.

World Cup: Australia vs. Peru & France vs. Denmark

France are in. If Denmark win or draw they're in.

So looking good for Denmark and France.