Saturday, October 14, 2017

College Football Week 7

Whoa. I'm not sure tomorrow will give us a single game to match Syracuse > Clemson AND Cal >>>>>>> WSU. (Side note - remember when UW beat Cal 38-7?)

Tuesday, October 3, 2017

College Football Week 6

Content is updated. In life news I'm down in Menlo Park for facebook's datacamp. So far it's great, although I was there until 10 tonight. In world news, there was a terrible shooting in Las Vegas. I'm so depressed about the state of gun violence in the United States.

How does this ever end?
Data don't change minds. Study after study show that restrictive gun control laws reduce homicides, suicides, domestic abuse, you name it.
Reason doesn't change minds. No matter how many gun deaths we have, or gun massacres we endure, defenders of gun rights repeatedly trot out the same tired and poorly thought out arguments: I need it for protection, guns are a defense against tyranny, gun control is ineffective, or you can't prevent all gun deaths.
Tragedies don't change minds. We had sandy hook where little tiny kids died in a school. Democrats proposed the wimpiest milquetoast gun control measure ever and republicans still unanimously voted against it. A senator was shot and nearly killed, republicans responded by trying to make it easier to buy silencers.
Compromise doesn't work. In Washington in 2012 we voted on a measure to require every gun transaction have a background check (to make it harder for felons, domestic abusers, etc. to get guns). Gun rights advocates fought it tooth and nail.
How do we escape this horrifying, infuriating, cycle. Or do we.

OK, I do actually have some football content to share.

Wednesday, September 27, 2017

Week 5 College Football

It certainly has been a surprising season so far. Miss State >>> LSU, Maryland > Texas, Baylor, Purdue >>> Missouri, and TCU > OkState to name a few.

I love weeks like this with ranked teams going on the road against decent power 5 teams. Two weeks ago that gave us San Diego State upsetting Stanford. Really, it feels like any of the top 5 games could go the same way.

Now that I work at Facebook (in case that's news I'm started there two weeks ago as a data scientist!) I'm trying to embrace the move fast & break things culture. Often during weekly updates I screw around in the model and do random analysis that's interesting to me. In the past I've thought hard before hitting publish, but why? So in that spirit, here's one I did this week.

After each week's games, the model updates team ratings based on how much they under/over performed expectations. The expectations are based on Posterior Win Probability, which does a great job evaluating team performance without giving too much credit for blowouts. Put another way, if a team is expected to win by 7 but they lose by 24 that's a big deal and the model treats it that way. But if a team is expected to lose by 30 and they lose by 60, that's less of a big deal.

Tl;dr: these are the games so far this year the model found most surprising.

Most Surprising Games

Monday, September 25, 2017

Week 4 College Football Results

Content (sidebars and dashboards) is updated.

I had no interest in the game but I'm still irritated about Penn State's last minute comeback to beat Iowa.

Thursday, September 21, 2017

Week 4 College Football

Team Dashboards are updated through the current week. Next week I'll put up the expanded dashboard and we can all marvel at Baylor's downfall.

No super balanced games in this week's top ten, each one has one team with the very clearly darker square. Which games will give us this week's upsets?

Friday, September 15, 2017

Week 3 College Football

Hurricanes continue to wreak havoc in college football and (more importantly) much of the state of Florida (and Houston before that). We've already had quite a few games cancelled and/or postponed, including today's top game.

I found a nice resource on SB Nation that summarizes all the changes. Changes are updated in my modeling as I learn of them.

So Miami / FSU will be rescheduled, but in the meantime we get Clemson @ Louisville, and really I think I should add 5 Watchability points to any game featuring Lamar Jackson. Also, I would have never predicted Baylor/Duke showing up on the Top Games list, but that's when you get when Baylor appears to have cancelled their season without telling anyone.

Monday, September 11, 2017

Week 2 Results

Content is updated. I return home on Thursday so shortly thereafter we  should be fully back in the swing of things for week 3!