2013 College Football Modeling: Week 10 Viewing Guide

Whew. The exam is over and I can slowly let my brain un-clench. I've got a Watchability chart ready for this week, and predictor tool will be back on Monday  Thanks for the patience everyone, I'm so looking forward to a weekend of guilt-free football watching.

• As always
• Watchability measures how good the teams are and how likely the game is to be close (Way more detail on what Watchability here)
• The more green a team is shaded, the better its chance to win; the more red, the worse
• Ranking (when listed) is this week's BCS ranking
• All times Pacific
• Same chart sorted by Watchability here

2013 College Football Modeling: Week 9 Viewing Guide

• As always
• Watchability measures how good the teams are and how likely the game is to be close (Way more detail on what Watchability here)
• The more green a team is shaded, the better its chance to win; the more red, the worse
• Ranking (when listed) is this week's BCS ranking
• All times Pacific
• Same chart sorted by Watchability here

2013 CFB Modeling: Week 8 Game by Game Predictor

• Ouch for the Huskies. What a disastrous performance in the desert. Here's hoping 3 weeks of Cal-bye-Colorado can cure what ails them. 
• The model had Clemson #12 (AP had them #3). I guess even #12 was way too high; the model has them #24 now.
• I have an actuarial exam coming up in a week and a half, and I've already gone dark (24 if you don't get the reference). I'll be able to get a Watchability chart up on Thursday as usual, but probably not Predictor update next Monday. 
• Speaking of the exam...
• I've gotten plenty of questions on methodology. Once the exam has passed, I'll actually have time to post about methodology. I'm going to do it in a series of Monday morning posts, we'll have Methodology Mondays around here. It's kind of like #fridayfocus or #throwbackthursday except with Actual Math, I hope to share enough details so people can understand what's going on and offer criticism, while still maintaining some level of propriety.

• OK. Predictor has been updated with current data.
• As per usual:
• Type any FBS team into the box and the table will populate with 
• Games
• Past outcomes 
• Future win probabilities 
• Team's ranking each week (according to the model) 
• Scenario analysis
• Graph of expected total regular season wins

Please let me know if you have any questions or find any scheduling/outcomes errors.

2013 College Football Modeling: Week 8 Viewing Guide

• Apparently the ducks will have pink helmets this week?
• Big game for the Huskies. Here's to Bishiop Sankey running for 250 yards against the porous ASU run defense
• Fun looking week!
• Average Watchability by game type:
• We have 5 games this week > 68
• Those games are spread out nicely through the day
• Chart sorted by Watchability
• As always
• Watchability measures how good the teams are and how likely the game is to be close (Way more detail on what Watchability here)
• The more green a team is shaded, the better its chance to win; the more red, the worse
• Ranking (when listed) is this week's AP ranking
• All times Pacific

2013 College Football Modeling: Week 7 Game by Game Predictor

• Rough game for UW. Marcus Mariota and the Oregon offense are on another level.
• Wow WSU. They were holding their own against Oregon State until they turned the ball over 4 times in the fourth quarter. That has to be some kind of record - anyone?

• Model is updated with current data, no significant additions this week.
• I've got an actuarial exam on 10/30 and it's crunch time. I plan up updating/posting the odds tool & Watchability chart each week, but that'll be about it.
• I've been developing way to calculate Game Score - a measure of how impressive a team's performance in any game is. Game Score based on how much the team won (or lost) by and how good its opponent was. It's working really well so far and I'm pretty excited about it. 
• Look for more on Game Score after the exam, but know that Oregon's win over UW rates as the highest (most impressive) performance in college football this year
• As per usual:
• Type any FBS team into the box and the table will populate with 
• Games
• Past outcomes 
• Future win probabilities 
• Team's ranking each week (according to the model) 
• Scenario analysis
• Graph of expected total regular season wins

2013 College Football Modeling: Week 7 Viewing Guide

• Ducks ducks ducks. It's been way too long since the Huskies have defeated the ducks. This is the year! Wife and I will be at the game. I feel a few more Washington-Oregon bullets coming
• History of the Washington-Oregon rivalry in a single image
• Math confirms UW is more AWESOME
• 
• That chart is generous for the ducks. I gave them credit for a Rose Bowl win for winning the 1917 Tournament East-West Football Game. And I didn't include the 1960 disputed national title for UW. 
• Betting lines opened with UW as a 14 point underdog but my model only has them as an 8 point underdog. I even took out my special Husky-homer-bias-adjustment!
• I'm nervous. This could be a signature win, it could be another 24 point embarassment.
• WSU-OSU rates out as almost exactly 50/50. I'm excited for that game, I think it will reveal a lot about both teams
• I'm trying out a new format for the Watchability chart. It's sorted by time then by Watchability. I like it better. It makes it easy to say "Hmm, it's 10am. I wonder what the best game is right now?" I'm curious what other people think.
• As always
• Watchability measures how good the teams are and how likely the game is to be close (Way more detail on what Watchability here)
• The more green a team is shaded, the better its chance to win; the more red, the worse
• Ranking (when listed) is this week's AP ranking
• All times Pacific
• Share and enjoy!

• If you just. can't. stand. the new format I did put up the old format here

2013 College Football Modeling: Week 6 Game by Game Predictor

• The Huskies showed they on the same tier with the top teams in the nation this weekend. It sucks not to win, and it sucks that the game ended in the replay booth, but Husky football is back!

• Model is updated with all current game outcomes
• Type any FBS team into the box and the table will populate with 
• Games
• Past outcomes 
• Future win probabilities, 
• Team's ranking each week (according to the model) 
• Scenario analysis
• Graph of expected total regular season wins

• I'm going to be taking out odds tools from past weeks (they make the page slow to load)

2013 College Football Modeling: Week 6 Viewing Guide

• Huge game for the dawgs! Go Huskies! 
• The Huskies are currently 7 point underdogs. How much does that line move if they get Richard Sherman for that game?
• Bama - Georgia State is a game between literally the best and worst FBS teams. Model rates Bama as a 53.6 point favorite that's 99.93% to win. 99.93 is probably low
• Why is Utah State - BYU not nearly the same rivalry as Utah-BYU
• As always
• Watchability measures how good the teams are and how likely the game is to be close (Way more detail on what Watchability here)
• The more green a team is shaded, the better its chance to win; the more red, the worse
• Ranking (when listed) is this week's AP ranking
• All times Pacific