Alright alright alright alright ALRIGHT alright! It's getting real!
Before we get to Germany-Brazil, I finished up my post on that amazing Costa Rica-Netherlands game; sorry for the delay! There's some good annotation in there on exactly how the penalty kick math works and why the odds move the way they do. Check it out!
On to the main event, Germany-Brazil might be the game of the World Cup. It matches the two top rated teams in the tournament, and the two favorites. The game should be super even and fun to watch, even without Neymar for Brazil.
This awesome looking heat map shows just how close a game this is expected to be. Scores of 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, and 1-2 are all neck and neck in terms of likelihood, and there's a pretty decent chance of extra time / penalties!
This post has a little more on how the win probability graphs work
This post has a little more on how the pregame heat maps work