Monday, November 6, 2017

College Football Week 11

Well that certainly shook things up a bit! Losses by Penn State, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, and Virginia Tech knocked those teams effectively out of the CFP.

Dashboards have been updated.

  • Georgia @ Aubutn
    • The model has this game as 50/50! (FWIW, oddsmakers rate UGA as just a 2.5 point favorite, so the model and oddsmakers are fairly close on this one)
    • Interesting that Georgia is 85% to make the CFP if they win here. While a win gives them the inside track to the SEC title game, I only have them as 31% to beat Bama on a neutral field. That means the CFP model is giving serious credit to the possibility that Georgia wins out, loses to Bama in the SEC Title Game, and STILL makes the CFP. That really doesn't feel that wrong to me.
  • ND @ Miami (Fl)
    • Nearly a CFP Elimination game for both teams. Note that Miami is undefeated, and ND has a loss, but their CFP chances are similar. I like that. Miami's schedule has been fairly weak and they've tried to lose most of their games. Notre Dame has been rolling, except for a 1 point loss to Georgia. Their resumes feel similar to me.
  • TCU @ OU
    • Effectively an elimination game. This makes sense, both teams have 1 loss and a second hurts their resume and their chances of making the big-12 title game
  • OkState @ Iowa State
    • Just marvel at Iowa State making top 10 watchability week after week.
  • Washington @ Stanford
    • Since this game is on a Friday, maybe someone will actually watch Washington play.
  • Iowa @ Wisconsin
    • Here's to Iowa just rolling through and causing CHAOS. 
  • WVU @ K State
  • NC State @ BC
  • Michigan State @ Ohio State
    • What is there to say about these games?

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